Augur is a new application in the works that will run on the Ethereum blockchain. The goal of the application is to give users the ability to predict markets/events. The predictions could be binary, scalar, or categorical. For example, somebody could place predictions on things like “how many Netflix subscribers there will be in Q4” or “will Kanye become president in 2020”.
The markets for this type of application could be endless. The diagram below shows the current process which is shorter and more efficient than before. 6,000 lines of code shorter to be exact!
What was Removed?
- Some events had confusing conditions before (so instead of making “Will Elon Musk ever get to Mars” and having one market until say 2030, instead users will create markets like “Will Elon make it to Mars by the end of 2018?” and another one for 2019, etc.)
- Vitalik who is the founder of Ethereum suggested taking out the reporting commit because of its complexity and cost (if people collude, the system will just end up going to the next backstop).
- Before markets with higher amounts of outstanding shares in the first wave of reporting were getting more reporters so that was removed.
- Indeterminate and unethical are lumped under one invalid now.
1. Security Audits (in progress)
2. Code Bug Bounties
3. Bug Bounty Prediction Market Release
4. Augur Lite release with a maximum amount of shares outstanding / open interest in the markets (meaning only a small amount of money can be locked up in them). Alternatively, make it so users can only deposit a maximum amount, say, 5 ETH.
5. Full Augur Release
The direction for Augur is to launch slowly to avoid risk. In the beginning the core developer team will essentially have power to replace and upgrade contracts in the case of a fault event or vulnerability after launch. They want to keep Augur on “training wheels” to start and slowly remove these help processes over time as the system proves to be secure. Currently, if something went wrong updates could be made very quickly to solve it.
In conclusion, more Dapps like this are getting developed everyday. I believe over the next year the number of use cases as well as ideas for the Ethereum blockchain will rise significantly. Stay tuned for the exciting ramp up of a technology that can revolutionize the world.